Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 21.387792 25.684201 30.404777 35.948024 42.249700 49.161527 57.285652
2025-08-31 14.332161 19.744737 26.311421 34.740729 45.141729 57.420997 72.868901
2025-09-07 11.079490 17.017479 24.793014 35.449873 49.382348 66.674777 89.424375
2025-09-14 8.448491 14.371330 22.688667 34.766743 51.357124 72.822496 102.105223
2025-09-21 6.984483 12.994138 21.954857 35.607306 55.123989 81.218099 117.829742
2025-09-28 5.267992 10.836501 19.703732 33.921672 55.105851 84.389737 126.646472
2025-10-05 4.548625 10.142428 19.521966 35.159443 59.189907 93.230220 143.356695
2025-10-12 3.893125 9.411921 19.147737 35.998414 62.658072 101.289102 159.243532
2025-10-19 3.324768 8.715159 18.710100 36.641217 65.798224 108.946906 174.793540
2025-10-26 2.891176 8.188037 18.479150 37.559330 69.361078 117.314378 191.603397
2025-11-02 2.364232 7.332312 17.517306 37.112663 70.677874 122.337095 203.681262
2025-11-09 1.997530 6.745880 16.972192 37.311042 72.999682 128.915402 218.208187
2025-11-16 1.624072 6.072837 16.221745 37.186016 74.980853 135.379150 233.331264
2025-11-23 1.232110 5.218956 14.958727 35.980086 75.060726 138.913312 244.256852
2025-11-30 1.042054 4.870364 14.727298 36.711208 78.515022 147.924405 263.855090
2025-12-07 0.806971 4.281058 13.833513 36.009311 79.337638 152.665158 276.929463
2025-12-14 0.688655 4.036703 13.717155 36.873165 83.028646 162.233651 297.871190
2025-12-21 0.491126 3.386589 12.447560 35.140720 81.756191 163.425577 305.466802
2025-12-28 0.430994 3.268613 12.555465 36.412915 86.230005 174.488412 329.266200
2026-01-04 0.367116 3.098539 12.487321 37.275066 89.945056 184.363836 351.391190
2026-01-11 0.307801 2.913752 12.340904 37.935547 93.286698 193.690989 372.853458
2026-01-18 0.263387 2.779302 12.318369 38.878791 97.228936 204.186826 396.507694
2026-01-25 0.201132 2.486011 11.740363 38.419914 98.299319 209.621499 411.852759